Friday, April 10, 2015

'Dr. Strangelove Part Deux or 'How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love The Persian Atomic Bomb!'

'Let's see: Persian Iran Has The Uranium Bomb....'
We feel as if we are watching a really bad sequel to one of the great dark comedy movies of all time, Dr. Strangelove, as we observe the almost unbelievable unfolding of negotiations between President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry and the Iranian leaders.

We readily admit we are not foreign policy experts..but then again, hardly any of the people commenting on this issue in social media are foreign policy experts either.

We have been close enough to and sitting in meetings though in the past where matters of such weighty foreign policy as glasnost and perestroika and aiding freedom fighters in Nicaragua and Angola were considered and discussed that we think we can comment on this Iranian deal with some degree of insight.

Some people act like if they stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night, that all of a sudden makes them a Prince Metternich or a Winston Churchill, expert in all foreign policy matters or something.

It doesn't work that way in foreign policy. You need to read volumes of history and actually be in the foreign policy game for decades before you can really have any gravitas in this important issue to all Americans.

Former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Schultz have written an important piece you should make sure you read which brings to bear their combined 120 years of foreign policy experience on their skeptical view of this 'Iran Deal' that President Obama is saying is so good for America and peace-loving nations around the globe.

Just to boil this down to an elementary level, we thought we would try to summarize what we are dealing with in a way most people may be able to digest and not wait for some breathless commentator on cable talk shows tell you what they think you should think of this deal.

For beginners, take a quick look at the history of Persia which became Iran around the time of World War II. Apparently, the name 'Persia' had too many negative connotations for the Brave New World post-Hitler, Mussolini and Hirohito, and for good reason: in the history of the world, Persian armies and navies have probably been involved in more conflict than almost any other nation. Persia has to be in the top 5 war-like aggressive nations of all time known to man. Here's just a few we could glean from various websites:

Persian Revolt (552–549 BCE)
Conquest of Lydia (547 BCE)
Conquest of Babylonia (540–539 BCE)
Conquest of Egypt (525 BCE)
Invasion of Indus Valley (518 BCE)
Greco-Persian Wars (499–449 BCE)
Battle of Cunaxa (401 BCE)
Artaxerxes' II Cadusian Campaign (385 BCE)
Revolt of the Satraps (372–362 BCE)
Macedon invasion of Iran (355–328 BCE)
Parthian Empire (247 BCE–224 BC)
Seleucid–Parthian Wars (238 BCE–129 BCE)
Armenian–Parthian War (87–85 BCE)
Roman–Parthian Wars (66 BCE–217 CE)
Sassanid Empire (224–651)
Roman-Sassanid Wars (232–440)
Byzantine–Sassanid Wars (502–628)
Ethiopian–Persian Wars (570–578)
First Perso-Turkic War (588–589)
Second Perso-Turkic War (588–589)
Third Perso-Turkic War (627–629)
Muslim conquest of Persia (633–644)
Saffarid Dynasty (861–1003)
Ghaznavid Dynasty (962–1186)
Khwarazmian Dynasty (1077–1231)
Mongol invasion of Khwarezmia (1218–1221)
Timurid Dynasty (1370–1507)
Campaigns of Timur (1380–1402)
Timurid Civil Wars (1405–1501)
Safavid Dynasty (1501–1736)
Persian-Uzbek Wars (1502–1510)
Battle of Chaldiran (1514)
Ottoman–Safavid War of 1523 (1532–1555)
Ottoman–Safavid War of 1578 (1578–1590)
Ottoman–Safavid War of 1603 (1603–1618)
Ottoman–Safavid War of 1623 (1623–1639)
Hotaki-Safavid War (1709–1722)
Russo-Persian War of 1722 (1722–1723)
Hotaki Dynasty (1709–1738)
Ottoman-Hotaki War of 1722 (1722–1727)
Afsharid-Hotaki War (1720s–1738)
Afsharid Dynasty (1736–1796)
Afsharid–Ottoman War War of 1730 (1730–1735)
Nadir Shah's invasion of India (1738–1739)
Afsharid–Ottoman War War of 1743 (1743–1746)
Civil War between Afsharid and Qajar (1747–1796)
Persian Civil War-(1779-1794)
Georgian-Persian War-(1795-1796)
Afghan-Persian War-(1798)
Russo-Persian War-(1804-1813
Afghan-Persian War-(1816)
Turkish-Persian War-(1821-1823)
Russo-Persian War --(1825-1828
Afghan-Persian War-(1836-1838
Afghan/Anglo-Persian War-(1855-1857
Persian Revolution -(1906-1909
Mohammed Ali's Invasion -(1911)
Anglo-Russian Invasion and Occupation of Persia -(1911)
World War One -(1914-1918)
Soviet Invasion of Persia -(1920-1921
Persian Revolution -(1921)
Arab Rebellion in Khuzistan -(1932)
Anglo-Soviet Invasion and Occupation of Persia -(1941-1946
Kurdish Rebellion -(1941-1944)
Azeri Rebellion -(1945)
Kurdish Mahabad Rebellion -(1946)
Anti-Mossadeq Coup -(1953)
Iran-Iraq Border Battles -(1969-1970)
Kurdish Rebellion -(1970-1980)
Iranian Seizure of Gulf Islands -(1970-1980)
Dhofar War-(1973-1975)
Islamic Revolution in Iran -(1979-1980)
U.S.-Iran Hostage Crisis--(1979-1981)
The First Persian Gulf War (also known as the Iran-Iraq War)—(1980-1988)
The Tanker War -(1984-1988)
Iran's Proxy War with Israel -(1980s-Present)
PEJAK Kurdish Rebellion -(1998-Present)
Proxy War with the United States -(Current)
Jundallah Sunni Rebellion -(2003-Present)
2009 Presidential Election Protests and Violence---(2009)

You will note that the United States of America was not even in existence for 84%+ of Persian/Iranian history. It would be very hard to explain the current Iranian antagonism towards western culture and civilization totally on the United States, yes?

Persia/Iran has always been antagonistic towards western civilization and culture! Ask the Athenians!

While President Obama is saying now is the time to 'trust' the Iranians, take a look at this report put out by the ironically named ISIS (Institute of Science and International Security) and see what you think about the trustworthiness of the Iranian leadership over the years. One commentator has said that Iran has a 100% non-compliance rate for any nuclear materiel deal they have signed with anyone over the years.

That is not a good way to build trust with the rest of the peace-loving nations of the world, is it?

Here's a US State Department report put out in 2013 (!!!) by President Obama's very own State Department headed by Secretary of State John Kerry that clearly states that Iran has been at the helm of state-sponsored terrorism for a long, long time and shows no desire to change any time soon.

One excerpt from this report ought to make your grits steam this morning:
Iran remains a state of proliferation concern. Despite multiple UNSCRs requiring Iran to suspend its sensitive nuclear proliferation activities, Iran continued to violate its international obligations regarding its nuclear program. For further information, see the Report to Congress on Iran-related Multilateral Sanctions Regime Efforts (November 2013), and the Report on the Status of Bilateral and Multilateral Efforts Aimed at Curtailing the Pursuit of Iran of Nuclear Weapons Technology (September 2012).
That study was published in 2013. What has happened since then to turn the ayatollahs who control Iran into Eagle Scouts who will abide by the Scout Oath:
'On my honor I will do my best, To do my duty to God and my country, and to obey the Scout Law; To help other people at all times; To keep myself physically strong, mentally awake, and morally straight'
'Honor' in anything is earned, not presumed. It takes time to achieve and then time to be recognized; it doesn't happen overnight or in a press release as President Obama seems to believe now about the Iranian leaders.

We grew up in the era of Nixon going to China and then opening up relations with Russia, far more powerful and dangerous nations than Iran to be sure. One reason why Nixon was believable was his hard-line stance against communism for decades. When you hear 'Nixon going to China', that means someone who has credibility to protect and defend American interests has gone into the lion's den to negotiate with the enemy...and you know he/she has our best interests at heart.

President Obama has failed to build that sort of trust in the American people. From his very first 'Apology for America Tour' around the globe soon after being elected, his foreign policy has been riddled with failure after failure to advance American interests.

We asked several Obama faithful this week to name just one amazing success in Obama's foreign policy, aside from allowing Seal Team VI to take out Osama bin Laden several years ago. So far, we have heard nothing back from them but the sounds of crickets in the background.

Some proponents of this Iran Deal echo the words of Ronald Reagan as he negotiated with Mikael Gorbachev on nuclear arms treaties: 'Trust But Verify'.

We want to believe this is possible but so far, we have not been told anything about how President Obama and Secretary Kerry would make sure this would happen in the future after they are long-gone from the national stage.

The only way this would seem even remotely possible would be for Iran to allow international advisors not only surprise visits and audits but to actually allow foreign personnel to sit in the research labs and in the processing centers on a daily basis to monitor every single transaction that takes place. Without that, we are just wishing and hoping that the character of the Iranian leadership has somehow had a chromosonal transplant from a peaceful, less-warlike DNA donor and now seriously wants to sing 'Kumbaya' and 'Michael Row Your Boat Ashore' around a campfire with the rest of the international community.

As part of the 'Trust but Verify' motif, we would suggest the very basic requirements of being part of the international community of nations before signing any deal with Iran:
  1. Have Iran sign a deal guaranteeing the right of Israel to exist in the homeland.
  2. Have Iranians stop shouting 'Death to America'
  3. Have Iran renounce its sponsorship of terrorism in every form around the globe.
  4. Have Iran participate in multi-lateral peace-keeping efforts in troubled areas with the US and other European and Asian nations
  5. A cooling-off period of 10 years where Iran abides by all of these requirements before we discuss signing any sort of nuclear deal.
What does Iran need nuclear energy for anyway in the first place? Are they afraid of running out of oil or something soon? Has there ever been any country that wanted nuclear energy solely for the purpose of heating homes and providing electricity for their citizens without progressing towards having a nuclear bomb at their disposal?

We will leave you with these thoughts to ponder and not even try to get into the complicated interpretations of the Book of Revelation to John in the New Testament or any of the apocalyptic readings from the Jewish or Muslim traditions.

Suffice it to say that had the authors of such eschatology known that one day, excitable fundamentalist leaders of Persian Iran might have their hands on such a thing as an 'atomic bomb' in that region of the world, the imagery they used would have been even more descriptive and terrifying that they already are.

As in this scene from 'Dr. Strangelove' except with a Muslim terrorist riding the bomb shouting 'Allahu Akbar!' instead of Major Kong:




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1 comment:

  1. Very interesting article. Trusting Iran is a feeble appeasement delaying disaster, just like all of Obummer's plans.

    ReplyDelete