Abraham Lincoln, The US Flag and The National Anthem

(first published in North State Journal 8/15/18)

“Fellow countrymen:

242 years ago, our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Equality guarantees everyone’s freedom to protest in America. Including kneeling for the national anthem and American flag.

Equality also guarantees this: No one has any right or power to make anyone else agree with or listen to them or watch any football game if they choose.

In great contests each party claims to act in accordance with the will of God. Both may be, and one must be, wrong. God cannot be for and against the same thing at the same time.

Such was the case with the Civil War. 2,672,341 Union soldiers fought under the 35-star American Flag during the Civil War. The vast majority were white men from the North who had never seen or met a black person in their life before the War.

642,427 of those Union soldiers suffered casualties during the War. There may not be another prior instance in history where a war was fought and slaves of another race or nationality were freed and not re-enslaved by the victors.

Let us not ever forget these brave men who consecrated the rebirth of freedom for which they gave the last full measure of devotion.

1,227,890 Rebel soldiers fought under the Confederate Flag. They lost. They and 3 million other white Southerners lost everything; land, possessions, political power, slavery; you name it, they lost it.

The Union flag prevailed. The Rebel flag didn’t. If for no other reason, that should be cause for the utmost respect every time the American flag is unfurled and the national anthem is played.

If you want to kneel before flags that represent past injustice, kneel before the English, Portuguese or French flags. They were the largest slave traders for centuries before and after America was colonized.

From beyond the grave, I have witnessed hundreds of millions of people being freed from oppression and dictatorship the world over by men and women serving under the American Flag.

16.1 million American soldiers served in World War II under the 48-star flag to defeat the German Nazis and the Japanese to protect and preserve the very freedoms used today.

There may be good reason to protest specific police departments for excessive use of force against minorities. Protest in front of each one. Start and pay for schools such as the one Lebron James started in Akron to help young children from impoverished neighborhoods get a great education and escape the cycle of poverty.

Run for public office and set policy for local law enforcement to deal with the tough issues they face every day. Serving in public office is a high form of patriotism as well.

It can never be explained while kneeling during the national anthem that ‘no disrespect is intended’ towards millions of fellow Americans who have served in the military.

The American flag and anthem are very important to them whether a protester likes it or not.

Slavery and racism have been a cancer on the soul of humanity everywhere since time immemorial.

From where I sit today, the most amazing thing about America is not how far we need to go for full equality but how far we have come from the beginning of our Republic.

Fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray, that Martin Luther King’s dream will soon come true:

“(Our) children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character”.

It is for the living to be dedicated to the unfinished work which they who fought before have thus far so nobly advanced. It is for all Americans to be dedicated to the great task remaining’.

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Dealing With The Whole Ball of Wax in Health Care

The Whole Ball of Wax

(first published in North State Journal 8/8/18)

The Mercatus Center published a working paper by Charles Blahous last week on the ‘Medicare For All’ (M4A) bill sponsored by Senator Bernie Sanders.

Every Bernie follower in the modern Socialist Democratic Party (SDP) ran to the media microphones to fairly shout: ‘M4A will save $2 trillion over 10 years! That is proof that single-payer health care coverage in America would work!’

Direct quote from the report:

“It is likely that the actual cost of M4A would be substantially greater than these estimates, which assume significant administrative and drug cost savings under the plan, and also assume that healthcare providers operating under M4A will be reimbursed at rates more than 40 percent lower than those currently paid by private health insurance.”

In other words: ‘You have to believe in both the Tooth Fairy AND Santa Claus before you can say M4A will not bankrupt America!’

There is no way on God’s green earth that every physician and hospital administrator will sit back idly and willingly accept a 40% reduction in payments from all private health insurance plans which cover 180 million Americans today.

Bernie Sanders has never seen a sea of white coat physicians swarming Congress like he would see if M4A came close to passage.

The report also clearly states that federal spending would go UP between $32.6 trillion to $38 trillion dollars over 10 years under M4A.  Bernie Sanders and his band of merry socialists could double everyone’s income and payroll taxes and that still wouldn’t be enough to pay for that massive increase.

Does anyone seriously believe that taxpayers would tolerate their taxes being more than doubled, on the distant hope of total health spending may have a snowball’s chance in Hades of going down by 3-4% over a decade?

If we are going to think anew about health care in America, let’s think about the ‘whole ball of wax’ in another way:

We are currently spending $3.868 trillion in direct and indirect payments, government and private, on health care in America, roughly 19% of GDP.

In 1960, it was 5% of GDP.

Why not take all current resources and find a way to divvy it all up according to need and income and then have everyone buy at least the most basic insurance they need to protect against a medical catastrophe that would wipe out their life’s savings in 1 week if it happened to them or their family?

What is ‘insurance’ anyway?

You buy home insurance to insure against the loss of your home due to fire. You don’t buy insurance that sends a crew to clean out your gutters every month.

You buy car insurance to insure against the total loss of your car in an accident or by theft. You don’t buy insurance to change your oil every 3000 miles.

Same with health care. We shouldn’t have to buy insurance to fix every hangnail we get during the course of our lives. We need insurance to pay for the enormous costs of cancer surgery and treatment or long-term nursing care due to a head trauma accident. That should be mandatory; other private plans can be offered for intermediate services and elective procedures.

We currently spend more than enough on health care in America, more per capita than any other
country on earth. We could cut the costs of The Whole Ball of Wax of Health Care by half if everyone tomorrow stopped smoking; stopped over-drinking and over-eating; walked vigorously 30 minutes every day and lost 15% of current body weight.

Which seems to be as likely to happen as Bernie Sanders getting his M4A bill passed. Still, if you want to stick it to the big bad insurance companies or medical profession, get healthy.

You will be glad you did. In many ways.

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2% Real GDP Growth Rates Are NOT The New Normal

(first published in North State Journal 8/1/18)

Remember the familiar lament from President Obama’s team for 8 long years?

‘2% real GDP growth is the new normal for the US economy’.

2% annual growth wasn’t even the ‘new normal’ under President Obama.

1.64% was. Pitifully and sadly so.

Their lamentations hearkened back to former President Jimmy Carter’s depressing ‘malaise’ speech of July 15, 1979:

‘It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.’

The ‘crisis of confidence’ Americans had from 1977-1981 was not in their own ability to perform.

Their ‘crisis of confidence’ was in President Jimmy Carter and his ability to lead.

The same can be said now about President Obama. His economic and foreign policy records will be linked with President Carter’s forever.

The above chart tracks the US economy on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the last year of the Bush 43 Presidency through 8 years of President Obama to 18 months under President Trump.

Seasonally-adjusted GDP growth rates actually make the first two years under President Obama look somewhat more favorable even though they were the worst two years economically since 1981-82 and before that, the Great Depression Decade of the 1930s.

No one in their right mind faults President Obama for the desultory real GDP growth rates in 2009 and 2010. The real estate crash nationwide and the failure of our banking and financial institutions plus the resulting job layoffs and business bankruptcies were the result of economic and fiscal polices that were years and decades in the making.

However, President Obama and his economic team had 6 more years to pass policies that would ignite the competitive economic spirit of America.

They failed to do it. Ever.

They concentrated their focus on managing everything with bureaucrats from Washington which crushed the free-wheeling spirit out of American business for the remainder of his term.

For whatever reason, be it Obamacare in 2010 that cast a very heavy blanket of regulations and taxes on US businesses or the avalanche of regulations the Obama Administration layered on American business, real GDP growth rates never exceeded 3% for any year of his presidency for the first time in modern American history.

Real GDP growth under President Obama averaged 1.9% annually for his presidency. If you take out the first 2 years and give Obama the benefit of the doubt since 2009-2010 clearly was a result of previous economic policies and mistakes and give him some credit for the 2017 growth rates even though a lot can be attributed to President Trump’s election, average real GDP growth on a seasonally-adjusted basis under Obama was only 1.64% annually from 2011-2017.

Businessmen and women today exude optimism and enthusiasm when they talk about their economic prospects and plans for expansion, increased sales and hiring more people.

Is it the tax cuts passed last December? Is it the rescission of hundreds if not thousands of federal regulations that were strangling economic growth? Is it the prospect of not having to worry about more taxes or regulations until 2020 at least and maybe 2025?

It may be all of these. It may be the fact that American businesses, workers and investors know that the Obama years are finally over and they can operate in a new business environment where they can work hard and keep more of what they earn and not pay more of it to the government.

Economic growth is contagious.

Maybe annual 3%+ real GDP growth rates are ‘the new normal’ today.

Again.

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What Has Happened To The Modern Democrat Party?

'Waddya mean we are not welcome to any Jefferson-Jackson
Democrat Party fundraiser anymore in America?'

(first published in North State Journal 7/25/18)

Much has been written about the Tea Party and the right-wing fundamentalist Christian influence on the Republican Party over the years.

Editorial writers seem to believe the more they write about ‘how dysfunctional’ the GOP is, the faster it will be driven into oblivion.

The last time the Republican Party held this many elected legislative seats nationwide in the US Senate, Congress and state legislatures and had occupants in the White House and 66% of the Governor Mansions was a century ago in the 1920’s.

Which brings to mind Mark Twain’s quip when informed that American newspapers were erroneously reporting he had died in London: “Reports of my death are grossly exaggerated.”

What about the Democrat Party? What has happened to them over the years?

If you had told a young Republican growing up in North Carolina in the 1960s and 70s that one day in their lifetime, Republicans would dominate the national and state landscape, they would have thought you were completely delusional.

Democrats controlled every possible lever of government from the Governor’s Mansion to dogcatcher across the state east of Morganton.  Democrats in North Carolina at the time tended to be fiscally responsible folks for the most part who balanced budgets with spending restraint first and resorting to tax hikes as a last resort, not the first option; supporters of free enterprise; advocates for a strong national defense; and fiercely anti-communist.

After filibustering the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Southern Democrats later supported civil liberties and a more active government stance as part of their coalition with northern liberals to control Congress for the next 30 years.

What has happened since then?

In 1985, there were 91 Southern Democrats in Congress. ‘Blue Dogs’ as they were known.

They typically voted with Republicans on economic, tax and defense-related issues. Which is why so much of the Reagan Revolution happened in the first place. They bucked the northern liberal leaders of their party on a regular basis to vote for common-sense legislation.

There are 8 Southern Blue Dog Democrats in Congress today. 4% of the Democratic Caucus.

4% does not constitute a majority. None of them are full committee chairs or in leadership positions in the Democrat Party in Congress.

Today’s national Democrat Party touts their ‘new and bold leadership for the future!’ as 76-year old, self-avowed-and-proud-of -it ‘Socialist’ Bernie Sanders, 69-year old Elizabeth Warren, and 28-year old completely socialist congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of Queens, New York.

Here’s what the leaders of the Democratic Party want to do today:

• ·       No Borders!
• ·       No ICE!
• ·       Repeal Everyone’s Tax Cuts!
• ·       Free Higher Education!
• ·       Medicare for Everyone!
• ·       Capitalism is Terrible!
• ·       Socialism is Great!

What in the name of Andrew Jackson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, JFK and even Bill Clinton is going on with the modern Democrat Party?

The lack of vociferous opposition from any moderate Democrat about the direction of their national party is deafening. No Democrat voted for the tax cuts.  All of them will vote for Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker if Democrats win Congress in November which means the socialist democrat agenda will be advanced, not the moderate Southern Democrat agenda.

Southern Democrats and Republicans disagreed on a few issues in the past but they voted together on the big issues for the good of the country such as job creation, the economy and national defense and security.

The Republican Party has its own internal issues to deal with. At least the GOP is heading towards more freedom and free enterprise. Not towards a socialist state.

Dozens of long-term Democrat political operatives in North Carolina have told me they have switched to Unaffiliated because of the leftward shift of the party.

Stay in the Socialist Democrat Party if you want. Or join 2,184,175 other North Carolinians who registered as Unaffiliated, the second largest affiliation in the state.

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A Man Walks Into A Socialist Restaurant In Maine...

'I am pretty sure we didn't
fight the Civil War to save
America for socialism'

'No, we didn't, Mr. President.
No we didn't'

(first published in North State Journal 7/18/18)

While in Maine recently, we marveled at the beauty of the coastline, the bustling small towns and harbors and the majesty of Acadia National Park.

We also saw tons of portraits and lithographs of General US Grant and family on walls of shops and homes. Second was President Abraham Lincoln.

It was Maine. Not the South.

We went to a highly-recommended restaurant that featured organic, locally-sourced vegetables; fresh caught fish right from the dock boat and ‘the best hamburger ever made’ because of the high-quality meat served under summer tomatoes and lettuce.

Maybe it was a play on being the ‘social’ place to go in town but staff prominently displayed black t-shirts that read: “The ‘social-(ist)’ place to be in town.”

After being talked out of asking a lot of questions by my family, an internal discussion took place in my head with the waitress that went something like this:

“Soooo, is this really a ‘socialist’ restaurant?”

“Well, it is Maine. We love Bernie and Elizabeth and now Alexandria, ya know.”

“Ok, then. I’ll have this great burger everyone is talking about. Socialists want free college education and health care for everyone so I assume it is free as well, yes?”

“It is $17.99, sir”.

“Wow. I can get a Big Mac for $3.99. Why doesn’t your burger cost the same as a Big Mac?”

“Ours is better sir. Better ingredients, more healthy for you. The beef comes from cattle that are fed the highest-quality grass and heirloom corn their entire lives.”

“But I thought socialists thought everyone should be treated the same. Your burger should cost the same as a Big Mac, yes?”

“Can I get you a drink, sir?

“Are you paid the same as the person who owns this place? Does the proletariat staff share the profits equally on a pro-rata basis?”

“We work for the owner. She is a well-respected and award-winning chef here in Mid-coast Maine.”

“So I guess she took all the risks in buying this place, borrowing money, putting in new ovens and equipment and hiring the staff and filing the tax forms and got all the licenses needed to run a restaurant?”

‘Well, yes, I guess she did.”

“At $17.99/burger, y’all must be making a lot of profit, yes?”

“I guess so. I just started work here a coupla months ago.”

“Even though you have no money in this business, do you get an equal share of the profits? Do you get to go to the same place as the owner does in the winter when it gets brutally cold up here?”

“I think I heard she has a place in Turks and Caicos or somewhere like that.”

“If this place goes bust because someone gets salmonella poisoning from some organic lettuce that has not been properly cleaned before serving, will the banks that lent the money to start the business just write off the debt and forgive the debt entirely without taking any action to recover their money by putting liens on the owner’s home or other assets?”

“I really don’t know sir.”

“Should I tip you or not? I mean, after all, why should I reward any excellence on your part if it will be seen as ‘unfair’ to any of your colleagues?”

“I really don’t know what you are talking about, mister.”

‘This really isn’t a ‘socialist’ restaurant then, is it, ma’am? Socialism draws its energy from capitalism. A risk-taking entrepreneur with vision and talent starts a business to make profits to pay the bills and survive. No profits; no way to pay your wages, therefore, no job for you and no money for anyone else through social programs.”

“I guess so. I just work here, ya know”.

“Y’all Mainers know Grant and Lincoln were Republicans, don’t you?”

“Thanks for coming, sir. Have a nice trip.”

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Debunking The Myths of Social Security

You get to choose: understand the facts behind
Social Security or believe in the myths of SS

(first published in North State Journal, 7/11/18)

Myth #1: Social Security is not an entitlement. 

Social Security is not only an entitlement program, it is the largest and most prototypical federal entitlement program.  Virtually any credible glossary of federal budget terminology will point to Social Security as the leading example of an entitlement (specifically, an entitlement is a program in which payments are obligated to beneficiaries according to eligibility criteria set in law, without requiring annual legislation to appropriate funds).

Myth #2: Social Security wouldn’t be in financial trouble if politicians hadn’t stolen and spent its money.

Social Security trust fund reserves are by law invested in US Treasury securities, which finance federal government spending.  But this phenomenon has nothing do with Social Security’s shortfall.  Social Security still owns all that money and earns interest on it.  Whenever Social Security tax revenues fall short of its benefit obligations, as they have since 2010, Social Security taps both interest and principal of its trust funds to pay benefits.  Social Security’s shortfall exists despite the government’s repaying those funds to Social Security, not because it won’t.

Myth #3: Participants have paid for their benefits. 

Workers covered by Social Security contribute payroll taxes, which establish an entitlement to benefits for themselves and certain dependents.  However, this does not mean they have paid for the full amount of their scheduled benefits.  Social Security has a shortfall precisely because in the aggregate, workers have not paid for their benefits: total scheduled benefits well exceed what workers’ tax contributions, plus interest, can finance.

Myth #4: Social Security is solvent until the 2030s, so there is still plenty of time to fix it. 

How soon Social Security’s trust funds run out, and how soon we must act, are two entirely different things.  By the time its trust funds are depleted, annual income and costs will be so far apart that there is no realistic chance of legislation closing the shortfall.  The window of opportunity for correction is closing now, if it hasn’t closed already.

Myth #5: Because Social Security is self-financing, it doesn’t add to the federal budget deficit. 

Since 2010, as Social Security’s costs have exceeded its tax revenue, the federal government has been running larger deficits to fund the payments it owes to Social Security. The fact that the federal budget benefited from Social Security surpluses in the past doesn’t make its ongoing deficit-worsening outlays, during the years it pays Social Security back, any less real.

Myth #6: Taxing rich people more by raising the cap on taxable wages will fix the problem. 

There’s a statutory cap on each worker’s annual earnings subject to Social Security taxes -- $128,400 this year and indexed to grow automatically in most years.  Raising the taxable maximum from today’s level all the way to about $350,000 in 2022 would only eliminate about 14% of the structural deficit, in part because a worker’s benefits are linked to his tax contributions and thus the tax increase would generate higher benefits for the well-off.  That cost increase could be prevented by changing the benefit formula on the high-income end; but without benefit changes, a tax cap increase by itself doesn’t accomplish very much.

Myth #7: Social Security privatization is a live option. 

Many years ago when Social Security was running surpluses, presidents such as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush suggested that workers be given the option of saving them in personal accounts. 

None of those proposals involved privatization, but instead would have allowed for individual saving within a publicly administered system. That opportunity vanished in 2010 when Social Security began running cash deficits.  Since then there have been no surplus Social Security contributions to save, and every program tax dollar collected now goes out the door to pay current benefits.

Despite the fact that this has long been a dead issue, occasional “privatization” fear-mongering continues.
===Written by Charles Blahous

Charles Blahous is the J. Fish and Lillian F. Smith chair and senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center, a visiting fellow with the Hoover Institution, and a contributor to E21. He recently served as a public trustee for Social Security and Medicare. This article was originally published on economics21.org.

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What Would Thomas Jefferson Write Today on July 4, 2018?

'Let's Get It Right This Time, Shall We?'

(first published in North State Journal, 7/4/2018)

‘In the course of human events, it becomes necessary from time to time for a nation of diverse people to reassess the political bands which have connected them together.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men and women are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

To secure these rights, and to defend against the tyranny of a few against the many, we have a democratic republican form of self-government deriving their just powers from the consent of the free people governed.

Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to register to vote to amend it and make it a better government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers that shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

Prudence will dictate that government programs long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and experience has shown that mankind is more disposed to suffer than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations evinces a design to reduce them under excessive government control, it is their right, it is their duty, to change such government, and to provide new safeguards for their future security.

Returning to our roots:

• Every citizen is entitled to their own personal freedom as long as they do not impinge on the freedom to which others are entitled to pursue their dreams and ambitions.
• The primary purpose of government is to provide secure physical defense from all threats, domestic and foreign, to allow individual freedom and creativity to flourish personally and professionally.
• America always will be a ‘nation of laws’, not whims.
• Each citizen will be responsible for their own actions and personal and family welfare.
• Where the private sector can do the job, government should stay out of it.
• Where the private sector can not, government can help people as temporary means of support.
• Where state and local government can provide, the federal government will not.
• The success of any assistance program, for individuals or businesses, will be measured not by how many people depend on it but how many people become independent of taxpayer help and are relieved of government dependence.
• “Taxation ‘with’ representation” should produce a fair consumption tax to replace all extant federal taxes.
• A defined contributions retirement program that will enrich each participant will replace Social Security.

We have reminded our elective officials over the past 8 decades of the creeping impediments of inept and over-reaching government interference into our lives. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity and urged them to take corrective action such as curbing the growth of our national debt, but they have been deaf to the voice of justice and consanguinity.

We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity to declare independence from the collectivist spirit of governance where the few want to control the lives of many. From this date on, we will do everything humanly possible to boost the independent spirit of what makes us all Americans.

We, therefore, the People of the United States of America, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, publish and declare, these Free and Independent citizens have full power to pursue freedom; gain knowledge; learn a trade; establish Commerce; take care of their families; speak and worship freely and to do all other acts and things which Independent people may of right do.

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor'

How To Solve The Immigration Crisis At the Border

(first published in the North State Journal 6/26/18)

‘Move all decision-making on all permanent and work-related visa applications away from the border’.

Make the US/Mexico border solely a checkpoint line where ‘go/no-go’ decisions are made allowing people with proper credentials to pass through.

Roughly 11 million US visas are granted each year. 80% are non-permanent tourist visas.

In 2012, it was estimated that up to 5 million people at the time had valid green card applications in process with the Department of State. Approximately 1 million permanent green cards are issued each year to people from all parts of the globe who have followed every step of the immigration process legally, in most instances, many times for many years.

There are 20 US consular offices, including the main Embassy in Mexico City, geographically dispersed throughout Mexico. People leaving Central American countries such as El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala intending to immigrate to the US probably pass within 100 miles or so of 7 consular offices in the interior of Mexico.

People seeking political asylum or permanent visa status in the United States can apply at any of these local offices in Mexico today. The application process for permanent visas or asylum requests is clearly spelled out at www.state.gov.

President Trump could issue an executive order tomorrow directing the Secretary of State to reallocate resources and personnel within the Department of State to expand visa application services at all of the 17 consular-related offices in Mexico not located on the US border.

No longer would Central American people or children with or without accompanying parents be enticed to travel hundreds, if not thousands, of miles in unsafe conditions, on a very arduous and dangerous journey to the US border with no guarantee of success in the first place.

They can visit the consular office in Oaxaca or Acapulco instead.

One thing everyone the world over learns in childhood is ‘not to break in line!’ There is no valid reason to allow anyone from any country to skip ahead of the 5 million other people who have taken all the legal steps and paid all the legal money to get a permanent green card ahead of them.

Another step would be to adopt the Mexican legal immigration process as a precondition for evaluating US approval of their green card application.

Mexico has granted permanent status to roughly 1 million foreigners out of their population of 127 million people. Mexico has a very strict policy about immigration; once anyone qualifies for admittance to Mexico, their background checks have been thoroughly checked, verified and vetted.

If you want to apply as a couple for permanent residency in Mexico, you have to demonstrate an income stream over the past six months of at least $2,325 per month from a pension or other verifiable work-related accounts or have savings in the bank amounting to $93,000 US over the past 12 months.

If we followed the official Mexican government policy lead as a qualifier for consideration for permanent American immigration, then if a person has lived in Mexico as a bonafide Mexican citizen and complied with the laws of Mexico in an impeccable and spotless manner, perhaps then they could apply to come to the United States on a permanent basis later.

Everyone can agree that the American system of immigration is broken and in need of dire reform and replacement. Until then, we need to enforce existing law and protect the rights of law-abiding citizens who immigrate to America the legal way.

One reason why millions of people each year apply to come to the United States is because we are supposed to be a ‘nation of laws’ where citizens have equal rights and equal opportunities.

The day we cease to be a ‘nation of laws’ is the day people will stop lining up to come here.

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Rapid Economic Growth Cures A Lot Of Sins

(first published in North State Journal 6/20/18)

‘We now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1," JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Ferol’—6/14/18

Are real GDP growth rates of 4%+ even remotely possible?

Of course they are. We experienced an extended period of real GDP growth over 4% annually from 1994-2000. Bill Clinton was President; Congress and the Senate were controlled by Republicans.

Before that, under President Ronald Reagan’s economic policies, we saw extended real annual economic growth rates over 4% from 1983-1988.

Economic booms are fueled primarily by productivity gains and pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies, not population growth as many assume. Most importantly, economic booms are fueled by abundant amounts of pure business optimism by owners and workers alike.

Business owners essentially ‘went on strike’ during the Obama years as they saw avalanches of federal regulation, taxes and control descend upon the American economic landscape. They reined in their hiring of new employees and capital investment for 8 long years and have only recently been ignited to invest and expand by the Trump and Republican tax and economic policies.

Besides the fact that there are more job openings today in America than there are people to fill them for the first time in recent history, what else does 4% annual real GDP portend for our future?

For one thing, if sustainable, 4% annual growth for the next 5 years will solve our exploding budget deficit and debt dilemma. Even though our elected leaders of all parties in Washington have been reckless and irresponsible since 2001 when it comes to federal spending.

CBO publishes regular updates of economic and budget projections, most recently April of 2018 (pictured above).

CBO makes pro-forma projections on a regular basis. Their predictions about what may happen is based solely on the most recent experience they can look backwards at and measure.

Annual economic growth under President Obama was 1.9% for 8 long years. Based solely on that precedent, CBO has made predictions about the next 10 years based on that same dismal rate of real growth.

Even though we now have a different President with a 180-degree different approach to business, capitalism, freedom and free enterprise.

In the attached spreadsheet, projections have been made based on 4% real GDP growth rates for the next 10 years, highlighted in yellow. 2% inflation is added on for nominal GDP growth of 6%.

Roughly 20% of GDP is captured by federal income, payroll, estate, and excise taxes each year so those numbers are extrapolated from the higher GDP projections to get the new revenue numbers, also highlighted in yellow.

If, and this is a humongous ‘IF’, we don’t spend any more money than projected under CBO current baseline assumptions, we will balance the budget by 2024 or certainly 2025 with real economic growth rates of 4% of more until then. (as indicated by green highlights above).

Virtually all economic forecasts were wrong in 1981 when President Reagan was in office or in 1993 before the Clinton Internet boom years. No one clearly predicted real GDP growth rates exploding under each Administration except the economic policy advisors in each Administration who privately hoped and prayed that things would turn out better than anyone had hoped or prayed.

The absolute key factor in all of this? Congress and President Trump can not increase spending over the current baselines for the next decade. Holding overall spending to 2% annual growth as was done from 1994-2001 would insure fiscal sanity.

If we experience 4% real GDP growth for any extended period of time, that sure will be a lot of ‘crumbs’ as Nancy Pelosi has called it.

It will be darn near a wedding cake for every American household.

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What Do China, The EU and G7 Nations Fear More Than a Trade War?

'Look, Donnie, we can't allow ANY foreign wienerschnitzel to come
into Germany to compete with OUR wienerschnitzel!'*

(first published in North State Journal 6/13/18)

Total free and fair trade.

Unmitigated by tariffs, trade barriers or artificial restrictions established by government to avoid pure unadulterated business competition.

Our trading partners around the world, as well as many business leaders in America, like the way things are right now. The more protection they receive from government, the harder it is to wean them off government assistance to compete on a fair and level playing field worldwide.

President Trump is right to call for an end to all tariffs and barriers and move toward a global free trade zone. He should press to lower nation-specific U.S. tariffs by 10 percent per year and tell each trading partner nation that as long as they lower their tariffs on U.S. goods and services by commensurate percentages annually, the U.S. will continue to trade with them and lower tariffs until they hit zero on both sides of the equation.

Countries will have to reduce their dependence on unfair trade barriers such as overregulation and currency manipulation which will obviate the need for tariffs in the first place.

The very existence of mutually agreed-upon tariffs between nations sets up the threat of retaliatory tariffs that lead to trade wars later. Free and fair trade can only be accomplished in a tariff-free world.

Tariffs are used typically to protect domestic industries in developing countries that want to grow up the economic ladder to modernity. However, once protected, an industry always wants to “stay protected,” be they in America or overseas.

The Canadian tariff on U.S. milk is 270 percent to protect the interests of 11,000 Canadian dairy farmers. Not the consumers.

In 1791, America was “China” in terms of trade piracy and protectionism. Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton wrote the first “Report on Manufactures” which encouraged the nascent government to pay spies to steal English textile manufacturing secrets and bring designs of textile machines back to New Jersey.

It worked. Soon textile mills were all over New England only to be lured to North Carolina and the South a century later by the attraction of cheap hydroelectric power supplied by the Southern Power Company, soon-to-be Duke Power, and other trade incentives such as “cheap labor” costs.

Once a nation has established itself as a stable economy and player on the world stage, the need for prohibitive tariffs and trade barriers diminishes exponentially.

China is now the second-largest economy in the world behind the U.S. They are no longer a “developing” country in need of tariff protection.

They are an economic powerhouse.

China achieved economic success partly due to economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping in 1978 but predominately through unfair trade practices. The Chinese government has engaged in imposing excessive regulatory hoops for foreign companies entering the Chinese market; deliberate manipulation of their currency to maintain price advantages over foreign competitors and serious theft of U.S. technology and ignoring U.S. trademark and patent protection that would make even Alexander Hamilton blush in admiration.

Milton Friedman argued that American consumers benefit from other nations acting so stupidly since they are using their resources to provide cheaper products to American consumers which meant Americans could enjoy a higher standard of living regardless of how unfair foreign trade practices were.

That may be true. But wouldn’t every person on this planet benefit from a perfect trade world absent any tariffs or trade barriers?

Prices would fall precipitously across-the-board around the globe. Nations that hold natural competitive advantages in certain resources and talent would produce and sell top-quality goods and services to the rest of the world and receive high quality goods and services from other nations in return.

Economic reality ultimately trumps human manipulation of trade at every turn. We don’t need new trade agreements built on mercantilist tariffs and protectionism.

We need a new world order of zero tariffs and trade barriers. Everywhere.

*photo courtesy of Bundesregierung/Jesco Denzel/Handout via REUTERS German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks to U.S. President Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 meeting in Charlevoix city of La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada, June 9, 2018. 

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The Danger of 'Latent Hypocrisy' in American Politics

(first published in North State Journal, 6/6/18)

Do you think you are a completely fair and objective evaluator of politics?

Take this test:

‘Donald Trump is a completely immoral man and shouldn’t be president of the United States!’

Agree or disagree?

Now do this: Replace ‘Donald Trump’ with Bill Clinton and see if you can say the same thing.

‘Bill Clinton is a completely immoral man and should not have been president of the United States!’

No ifs, ands, or buts allowed. No moral relativism on a scale of your choice. No saying ‘Well, Bill Clinton may have been bad but Donald Trump is worse!’

If you can’t say exactly the same thing about both men, you probably have ‘latent hypocrisy’ and you don’t even realize it.

Yet.

Latent hypocrisy is what is really hurting our political discourse lately. The inability not only of politicians themselves but commentators, news reporters and partisans to honestly admit both the good, the bad and the ugly about their side as well as the other side makes it virtually impossible to gain any traction on the truth, or as close of an approximation to the truth as we can humanly achieve.

We all know what ‘blatant’ hypocrisy is. That is where elected politicians know they are playing certain roles in public debate and staking positions out in public to frame the issue from both ends and to see a parameter within which a compromise can be hammered out.

Republican President Ronald Reagan and House Democrat Speaker Tip O’Neill used to routinely set out pretty harsh lines in public against one another in the 1980’s when Democrats held insuperable 85+ seat majorities to satisfy activist partisans on both sides. However, they would retire in the evening to play gin rummy, drink scotch and trade stories and jokes before settling down to some serious reasonable compromise they would both be willing to accept for the good of the country at large.

Not just for the good of their respective political parties.

North Carolina Democrat Senator and former Governor Terry Sanford and Republican Senator Jesse Helms grew up together in North Carolina politics as Young Democrats before Helms ran as a Republican in 1972. They would stake out diametrically opposed positions in public on an issue that made some people think they hated each other. Then they would go behind closed doors and hammer out a compromise because of their life-long friendship to get things done rather than waste time with endless and many times senseless yammering and posturing in public.

As long as political people acknowledge their ‘blatant’ hypocrisy in public is a tool to the ultimate end of a solution to the problem at hand, it can be accepted and used to good effect.

It is when people don’t recognize they have an inherent bias that troubles arise. If you think you are always right and your opponent and their party is always the Spawn of Satan, you will never drop your guard behind closed doors and give an inch on anything.

Your supporters and partisan followers won’t either. Who then go on talk shows to talk about the speck in the opposing side’s eyeballs when they have a railroad tie sticking out of both of theirs.

Try this exercise in the weeks to come. Anytime you hear someone on the other side say something nasty or terrible about your candidate or political party, say the same name of your favorite candidate or party and see if you can say it out loud in front of your spouse, friends or colleagues.

If you can’t say it without swallowing your tongue and breaking out into hives, then you are part of the problem.

If you can say it, congratulations on being an adult in a world of arrested development.

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'Donald Trump Didn't Even Collude With The Republican Party in 2016!'

'Ve must get Donald Trump elected, dahlink!'

(first published in North State Journal 5/30/18)

Late last year, over drinks with a long-time veteran southern Republican political operative, he leaned over and fairly shouted:

‘Heckfire! Donald Trump didn’t even collude with the GOP to get elected in 2016! How could the Russians have put up with him long enough to ‘col-lood’ to beat Hillary Clinton?’

He has a point. Most of the money and media time spent in 2016 was decidedly against Donald Trump, not for him. How did hackers from Russia figure out how to overcome all that opposition to help him win, if in fact, they did?

The Mueller team reported the Russians spent $1.25 million per month which, when compared to the $2.2 billion that was spent from all sources on the presidential race, would account for maybe 0.5% of the total amount of money spent in 2016.

When you consider how much disinformation was flying around the internet from all sources from 2015 to 2016, heavily negative against Trump from Republicans and Hillary supporters alike, if the Russians disproportionately made a decisive impact with 0.5% of all money spent, they really were magicians to begin with.

Foreign involvement in any election is bad. In 2015, President Obama was accused of using taxpayer funds to meddle in the Israeli election of Prime Minister Netanyahu. That was ‘bad’ just as well.

The open channels of the internet make it possible for any hacker to interfere anywhere they want.

However, it is impossible for any single person on the globe to influence an American political campaign all by themselves due to that same degree of openness.

If the Russians figured out how to get ‘their’ candidate elected in America with the limited amount of funds they spent on fake Twitter accounts and ads against the avalanche of money that was spent to defeat Donald Trump from all sides, they should sell that secret potion. Every campaign manager, pollster and operative in America would pay millions for it.

Many people make voting decisions solely on name recognition. Others vote based on a candidate’s appearance and demeanor. If one candidate is more well-known than the other and they are more appealing, they usually win.

During any presidential election cycle, any number of factors can determine which candidate wins or not. Lack of enough money usually is the determining factor. A candidate who can’t buy enough TV or social media ads to tell voters who they are or why the other candidate is ‘so bad’ is probably going to lose.

General organizational skills such as calling voters or knocking on enough doors to get your people out to vote play important roles in every election.

What is the greatest ‘get-out-the-vote’ mechanism? Motivation on the part of voters. They are either highly motivated to vote for one person out of hope or against the other candidate out of fear. No amount of ‘fake’ Twitter accounts or ads can manufacture or defeat those waves of voter sentiment once they hit a crescendo.

The choice to ‘blame Russian hackers’ for Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016 came right from Hillary Clinton and her top advisors herself. Political reporters Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes wrote in their book, ‘Shattered’, ‘…(Hillary’s) team coalesced around the idea that Russian hacking was the major unreported story of the campaign…’ less than 24 hours after her concession speech and they concocted a media strategy to spin her loss on them.

Not on anything she did wrong in the campaign.

Lo and behold, the media took the bait and swallowed it. We are now 1 year into the Mueller Investigation with no end in sight and close to $20 million of taxpayer money spent.

Russian hackers didn’t cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. She lost it fair and square. It is time for this version of the ‘long national nightmare’ to end.

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If Taxpayer Money Is Involved, Socialize The Upside And The Downside

(first published in North State Journal 5/23/18)
What is ‘welfare’ in the government sense anyway?

Merriam-Webster defines it as such: ‘aid in the form of money or necessities for those in need’.

This definition should be clarified with a friendly amendment: ‘..or who have the political clout to get elected officials use public taxpayer money to pay for what they want’.

Case in point: Should any public money be used to refurbish or replace Bank of America Stadium now that hedge fund billionaire David Tepper has purchased the NFL Carolina Panthers and Bank of America Stadium from Jerry Richardson?

From purely a philosophical musing viewpoint, the answer is no. Rich people are rich and will remain rich regardless of whether the average taxpayer antes up any tax dollar to help them pay for the stadium for the professional sports team.

They are ‘business people’. The NFL is a business. They are not investing in any professional franchise unless they are really confident they are going to make a profit when they sell it one day down the road.

Local municipal and state governments have been persuaded many times to obligate their constituents with user taxes or loan guarantees by the promise of more jobs created and economic growth generated from the ‘public-private partnership’ of building a professional sports stadium.

But the ‘public’ part of that partnership ends when the profits roll in. Then it is all ‘private’.

In 1995, former Washington Bullets, now Wizards, owner Abe Pollin privately financed the construction of the MCI Center, now Verizon Center, in the middle of downtown Washington, DC.

His personal risk-assumption and financing sparked a renewal and rebirth of downtown DC which still has momentum today.

Jack Kent Cooke privately financed the construction of The Forum for his NBA Los Angeles Lakers and the construction of Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, now FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland for his NFL Washington Redskins.

Successful businessmen used to be proud to be able to finance their own football stadiums on their own without taxpayer funding, or ‘corporate welfare’ as it is now known.

Rich business people didn’t get that way by not being smart and savvy. They understand financial and political leverage and they use it to lower their out-of-pocket costs in any business transaction.

Including the purchase of professional sports franchises and construction of new stadiums.

If they are going to use leverage to get a lower cost for their private investment, shouldn’t local municipalities use their financial and political leverage to get more in return if they are going to do it anyway?

Why not ask for a set-aside of say 10,000 seats per game for a lottery for any taxpayer who wants to attend an NFL game? Hundreds of thousands of Mecklenburg County residents probably have never attended a Panthers home game in the last 22 years. If they are on the hook for any public funding in any way, shouldn’t they get to go to one game for free in return for their investment of public taxed dollars?

If a locality floats a tax-exempt or general obligation bond to help build a stadium, whether those bonds are retired quickly by PSL licenses or not, shouldn’t they be considered part of the ‘ownership’ group in some way?

Perhaps the locality should ask for a 10% convertible ownership stake in the franchise so that when it is sold for $10 billion 25 years for now, $1 billion will be made available for the local budgets to build new schools, pay teachers more or pave the darn local roads.

If elected officials are going to be sold on ‘public/private partnerships’ for professional sports, why not ‘socialize the upside’ as well as the downside?

Or follow the lead of Abe Pollin and Jack Kent Cooke and privatize both sides of the equation.

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You Deserve A Gold Medal!

(first published in North State Journal 5/16/18)

CBO estimated that the federal government collected a record amount of your money, er, ‘taxes’, in April, 2018, $515 billion, a new all-time record!

Congratulations!  Don’t you feel like you should get a gold medal or something? How about a Congressional Order of Merit to thank you for paying for the programs everyone wants?

$515 billion in taxes collected is $59 billion, or 13%, higher than April, 2017. Individual income and payroll tax collection was $73 billion higher, or 20%, than 1 year ago. Final payments for taxes in April was $60 billion higher than April a year ago.

We collected more tax revenue income from individuals in April, 2018 than we ever have in any single month in the 229-year history of the United States of America.

Despite this record influx of tax revenue to the US Treasury, the budget deficit for the first seven months of FY 2018 went UP by $37 billion over the same period in 2017.

How can that possibly be?

More federal intake of taxes will never balance the budget as long as Congress and Presidents spend more money quicker at a higher rate.

Take a look at the makeup of all layers and levels of taxes paid to Washington in 2016:

Those are the only ways to squeeze blood out of your turnip via tax policy. So far, that is.

More money going to Washington from your pocket or checking account either through economic growth or higher tax rates is the same thing: More tax revenue.

More tax collection doesn’t matter if Washington continues to spend money like drunken sailors.

Which, as Ronald Reagan said, was an insult to all drunken sailors.

Here is why budget deficits have gone up this year in spite of record tax revenue collection in April:

‘Outlays for the first 7 months of FY 2018 were up $121 billion or 5% over the same period in 2017’ according to CBO'.

Spending for military programs is up 5% due to recent bills passed by Congress and signed by
President Trump. Homeland Security spending is up $17 billion or 59% due to disaster relief efforts. Social Security spending is up $23 billion or 4% because of COLA inflation adjustments and more beneficiaries retiring.

The ‘scary’ increase over the first 7 months of FY 2018 was in outlays for net interest on the public debt. Net interest costs rose $25 billion or 14% because of higher interest rates and adjustments upwards for their inflation-protected securities issued.

Interest rates are still low by historical standards. We know from history that the one thing no government has ever been able to manage fully has been when inflation fears get out of hand and then interest rates escalate to accommodate for those inflation fears.

As recently as 1979-1981, inflation reached 12% in the United States and treasury bill rates peaked at 14.5%. 14.5% interest rates on current national debt would mean $2.175 trillion out of our $4.2 trillion federal budget would go solely to pay holders of US bonds.

Will this superior generation of tax revenue continue to grow for the rest of the year?

Maybe. Perhaps. Some of tax collection depends on timing of payments due to holidays and tax considerations.

However, if the Trump/GOP tax cuts work perfectly and the economy continues to grow robustly, we might see a 10% increase in tax revenue collection for the rest of the year.

But that would only generate $333 billion more in surprise surplus revenue over the course of the year. At current levels of spending, we would still have over $500 billion in deficit-financing for the rest of the year.

The key to fiscal and financial sanity is through serious Congressional control of spending to below 3% annual growth per year. Forever.

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'Happy Birthday Karl Marx!' (?)

(first published in North State Journal 5/9/18)

May 5th was the 200th anniversary of the birth of Karl Marx.

He was celebrated and toasted in many circles.

The New York Times published an essay titled “Happy Birthday, Karl Marx! You Were Right!”. Bernie Sanders supporters sported bumper stickers during the 2016 campaign that read ‘Welcome To The Terminal Stages of Capitalism!’

22% of millennials today have a favorable view of Marx. 50% say they would rather live in a communist or socialist country than under capitalism.

While extolling the so-called ‘virtues’ of Marxism, Marx apologists somehow always fail to include the historical fact that 150 million or so innocent citizens have been murdered under diabolical Marxist communist dictators such as Stalin, Mao Tse-tung and Pol Pot.

Which begs the question: “If communism is so great, why do communist dictators have to kill so many millions of people to keep it intact?”

Americans do not kill or imprison people if they want to leave the United States voluntarily to live somewhere else. They just leave. Unlike from China, Cuba or North Korea.

If someone chooses to go off the grid to live off the land or in a commune in the US, no one from the government will try to force them back into corporate life and punch a time clock. Capitalism doesn’t use a police state to force a citizen to work as has been the case in many communist countries.

The problem arises when people who think communism is so great that everyone should be forced to live under it. ‘Voluntary’ communism is fine if people want to share resources and live non-materialistic lives together. ‘Forced’ communism under someone else’s rule goes against the very freedoms we sadly take for granted in 2018 America.

Consider the following tenets from the ‘Communist Manifesto’ published in 1848 by Marx and Engels:

• “abolition of property in land” 
• “a heavy progressive or graduated income tax” 
• “abolition of all right of inheritance” 
• “centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly” 
• “centralization of the means of communication and transport in the hands of the state”

Sounds strangely similar to many of the Progressive or Bernie Sanders socialist platforms in the last election, doesn’t it?

Contrast this with the philosophy of freedom put forth by John Locke, Adam Smith and Thomas Paine well before Marx that resulted in the US Constitution. Property rights, intellectual and copyright protection, anti-monopoly laws, ability to build wealth and pass along to heirs in spite of a high estate tax, decentralization of decision-making and financial services down to the individual level, not in Washington or New York City, are central tenets of our American way of life and the complete opposite of what Marxist doctrine would allow.

Millennials should very carefully reconsider their infatuation and dalliance with Marxism. Chances are very high that the person who takes over control of any ‘Marxist Utopia’ would shut down a massive range of freedom of choice to stay in power.

Do you like Twitter? Marxist regimes hate Twitter. Too much ungovernable information flying around all the time.

Do you like Uber? What if Marxists decide that everyone has to use the ‘Federal Taxi Cab Service’ (FTCS) instead so they ban Uber and make everyone pay the same fare and ride in the same 1970s Crown Victoria model automobiles so everyone will be ‘equal’?

Karl Marx wrote for a different time and a different era. Mindless adoption of the tenets of Marxism without understanding the violence and loss of freedom for everyone that comes with Marxist governance is a dangerous proposition.

Maybe by the 300th anniversary of his birth in 2118, the world will have learned those sad lessons and leave his philosophy on the trash heap of history and not celebrate them in any quarter around the globe.

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